June 8, 2022 11:40 AM I was in for a surprise this morning when I discovered that the SPC had marked a 5% risk of tornadoes across the Cincinnati metro. It wasn’t until yesterday that there was any indication of the possibility for severe weather, with a Day 2 Slight Risk (2/5) being issued at the 1730z update. Today’s environment pales in comparison to setups across the Plains recently, but considering the general lack of severe weather here over the last couple weeks, this is definitely something I’ll be monitoring through the afternoon. [Read More]

February 2, 2022 8:13 AM As Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow this morning on Groundhog Day, winter is certainly the first and only thing on my mind. The groundhog’s crystal ball aside, the Ohio Valley will be in the path of a genuinely concerning winter storm in the next couple days, a matter so serious that I can’t resist writing about it–ending my nearly one-year hiatus. I should’ve written about the crazy month that was this past December (record-shattering tornadoes, anomalous wildfires, well above average temps), but I’ll have to cover that in another post. [Read More]

Just one week following a tornado outbreak across much of the Southeast in portions of MS and AL, these same areas will be inflicted with another significant severe weather threat on Thursday afternoon and evening. Despite some claims that last week’s event underperformed with respect to the High Risk (5/5) issued, it actually verified quite well, resulting in a total of 49 tornadoes, 4 of which were significant (EF2). Fortunately, many of these tornadoes remained relatively weak and occurred over less populated areas, with zero deaths reported. [Read More]

Before I discuss the upcoming severe weather threat across much of the South on Wednesday, I first want to provide a recap of the tempestuous weather this weekend: While the weather hasn’t been very eventful here in Cincinnati for these first couple weeks of March with pleasant spring-like temperatures and sunny skies over much of the period, out to the west some wild weather occurred last weekend as an upper-level low traversed across the Rockies into the Great Plains. [Read More]

Before I discuss the upcoming threat of a significant winter storm beginning tonight into early this week, I’d like to recap on the weather from the past week. Early last week (February 8-9), a narrow yet intense band of heavy snow developed across south central Indiana, stalling for a period across much of the Cincinnati metro area. Although mesoscale banding with moderate/heavy snow due to low level frontogenesis was anticipated, the band outperformed nearly all forecasts, with a total of 7-10" across much of the Cincinnati metro and 2-3"/hr snowfall rates at times. [Read More]

11:05 AM As a surface trough tracks across the Ohio Valley today, a low-level jet approaching later this afternoon may provide enough shear and lift for the potential of some severe weather today. In fact, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (2/5) to areas east of I-75 across the eastern fringe of the Cincinnati Tri-State area and much of southeastern Ohio. The predominant threat will be damaging winds (5%-15%) and even a few potential tornadoes (2%) as a result of the increasing SRH later this afternoon with an incoming LLJ. [Read More]

12:18 PM While I typically produce my own forecasts and analysis for the Cincinnati Tri-State area, today’s threat of severe weather across the northern Great Plains has enticed me to create a discussion elsewhere. While the Moderate Risk (4/5) across eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota caught my eye, one word in particular has been appearing in #wxtwitter tweets and forecast discussions by various meteorologists in the field. Derecho. While multiple derechos, which must meet stringent requirements in order to receive the title (wind gusts above SVR criteria [>58 MPH] across a path of about 250 miles), have already occurred this year, they aren’t quite as common as many people think. [Read More]

July 11, 2020 10:09 AM After the passage of a cold front yesterday afternoon, cooler and less muggy air has filtered in after a week of hot and muggy air resulting in heat indices in the mid-upper 90s. While there is a respite from this uncomfortable weather pattern this weekend, it appears that this pattern may return in time for next week. Before we get to that, however, there may be some more active weather in the vicinity of the Tri-State this weekend. [Read More]

June 26, 2020 4:56 PM Out of curiosity, I went to check the latest 18z run from the NAM to examine the severe threat for this upcoming Sunday considering the Cincinnati area is encompassed in a Marginal Risk (1/5) this Sunday, June 28, by the SPC. To my shock, the NAM is making a pretty bold statement. Just take a look at the sounding below and you’ll see why. 18z NAM 0-3km Energy Helicity Index [Read More]

June 24, 2020, 12:08 PM  Although several days out, there are signs of a potential for widespread severe weather north of the Ohio Valley and across much of the Midwest this weekend around Friday and Saturday. The most significant threat for severe weather appears to remain north of the Cincinnati area across the northern Midwest on Friday according to the Storm Prediction Center. On Saturday, however, as an upper-level trough across southeastern Canada continues to move northeast, northwesterly flow will transition to southwesterly flow, leading to the advection of humid air as a shortwave barrels through the area along the jet stream aloft. [Read More]